The Financial Collapse Putin Cannot Bomb His Way Out Of

You do not see it on the surface, because state money is like ocean waves. You may be sitting on a raft and not even notice that you are being carried somewhere, lifted or lowered. But the movement of vast masses of water never stops. And it affects everything: the weather, the quality of the water in your tap, shipping, and war.

Money works the same way. When strain appears in one place, the tsunami may hit a shore thousands of miles away.

The monstrous theft in Russia has only grown over the years, because officials see the system from the inside and know that one day everything will explode. They steal in order to protect themselves and their families.

And there is little money in the treasury as it is.

The pro-war authors cry out in horror: "Why are new technologies not being introduced? Why can we not keep up with the Ukrainians? Why are all the command posts occupied by incompetent old men?"

Because those old men have one goal: to save themselves and their families.

And they will never let outsiders anywhere near their budgets.

So theft will only increase, and the financial problems will only deepen.

At the same time, Russia has loaded itself with monstrous expenses: war, civil servants, pensioners, social payments, transport, communications, bribes for Caucasian satraps, propaganda…

Modern Russia has forgotten how to build much of the complex industrial equipment it needs. And why would it have learned, when the Germans and the Dutch made everything better and cheaper? Before the war, Russia exported oil and gas and received in return turbines, engines, compressor stations, and other sophisticated equipment.

Now Ukrainian drones are finishing off that entire ecosystem.

Because of sanctions, prices for many essential items have risen severalfold, since middlemen now demand enormous fees at every step.

So there will be very serious problems with repairing and restoring refineries. The state simply will not be able to feed its horde of thieving officials and repair highly complex equipment at the same time.

Nor are there enough domestic specialists. In the past, foreign teams were brought in for such work. Now that, too, has become difficult.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world sees Ukraine's successes and Putin's complete inability to change anything. It sees the Putinists striking apartment buildings and architectural monuments, then shamelessly declaring: "The Ukrainians blew themselves up."

And this has gone on for four and a half years.

Now let us apply logic.

The fuel crisis will continue. Siberia will suffer worst of all, because fuel will be redirected from there toward central Russia.

The old caste system will grow even stronger. Officials will want special passes, special access to fuel, and special access to every other benefit.

Social tension will rise.

Putin is unlikely to pay much attention, because, as the saying goes, the sheriff does not care about the natives' problems.

He will go on shelling Ukrainian apartment blocks.

The reason is simple: he has surrounded himself with people who bring him nothing but good news. When there is no good news, they invent it.

They cannot do otherwise.

If the tsar turns against them, they will not merely be dismissed. Prosecutors will begin investigating them, and then so much will come to light that it hardly bears thinking about.

Putin's generals are safe only so long as they keep their posts.

Nor will there be any breakthrough at the front.

First, because the army is supplied worse and worse as finances and fuel deteriorate.

Second, because the very same system of universal theft and false reports operates there as well.

Third, because the commanders do not care in the least about places like Mala Tokmachka or Kostiantynivka. What they care about is surviving the war so they can enjoy the millions they have made by robbing their own soldiers and selling off military property.

Their task is to imitate energetic action, send glowing reports upward, and sit in safe basements where Ukrainian drones do not fly.

Now let us put two and two together.

What happens when your commanders send you to your death while they themselves care nothing about the result? What happens when there is not enough money for anything, and fuel, frankly speaking, is already a disaster — and will only get worse?

Will mobilization solve the problem?

Hardly.

As though the state had the money to train, equip, and supply fresh recruits.

As though those recruits were burning with desire to seize some village they had never heard of.

The country wants peace. Even the beasts in uniform are exhausted and no longer understand what exactly they are doing there.

They simply want to go home.

In any meaningful sense, Ukraine will still win this war — if by victory we mean preserving its independence and its statehood.

Russia, by contrast, is guaranteed very serious economic, criminal, and social problems.

To all the decent people in Russia, those who never supported the war from the start:

• If you have resources, leave — or stock up on what you will need to survive hard times. For the moment, that is still possible.
• If you do not have resources, join together and pool them. It seems that may be the only way.

To all the idiots who in 2014 treated "Crimea is ours" as a national celebration: now live with the consequences.

Blame yourselves, because there is no one else left to blame.

To Russia's opposition politicians: stop clawing at one another.

Take care of the good people, the ones who did not stain themselves with this war. Show that you are capable of it.

Politics is the care of one's own, not the division of imaginary positions in a nonexistent government.

Only that way will you win sympathy and change anything at all.

The demand for people who are active, effective, and — above all — normal will be enormous.