At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if the next Russian missile was just thrown together with random parts and whatever they could find lying around.

In 2022, Russia was firing more than 60 cruise missiles a day into Ukraine. They were targeting everything from city centers to power plants to rail lines. It seemed like they had an endless supply. But that's changed. Now, the missile strikes are less frequent and the numbers smaller. The tone has shifted too. It's no longer about showing power, but about desperation.

It's not like Russia just ran out of missiles. The real issue is deeper. How long can they keep burning through money, metal, and manpower before everything starts to fall apart? When that happens, there's no way to cover it up.

Before the invasion in 2022, Russia had about 1,800 long-range precision missiles, like the Kalibr, Kh-101, and Iskander. But those didn't last. Within the first nine months, Ukraine's defense ministry said they'd used up over 70 percent. Western intelligence confirmed it, adding that Russia started digging into old Soviet-era missiles from the 1980s.

To keep firing, Russia had to boost production. But it wasn't as simple as flipping a switch. The Kh-101 cruise missile, for example, uses dozens of high-tech components. Many of those parts come from outside Russia. After sanctions hit, they lost access to key microchips, guidance systems, and alloys. So, they started scavenging parts from dishwashers and refrigerators just to keep the production lines going. Yes, that's actually what happened.

In 2023, British military intelligence reported that Russia was making only about 40 cruise missiles a month. That's nowhere near enough to keep up with large-scale attacks. They might launch a hundred in one wave, then go quiet for weeks. It's not a strategy. It's necessity.

Cost matters, too. A single Kalibr missile costs around 6.5 million dollars. Fire off ten of those and you've just burned through the budget of a small hospital. Russia's war is already draining billions each month. Every missile they fire is a choice: target Ukraine or keep things running back home. It's a balancing act between battlefield pressure and what people can tolerate at home.

Then there's the issue of quality. Ukrainian investigators and Western analysts have reported that more and more Russian missiles are failing. Some don't explode. Others go off course. And some are duds right from the start. With supplies running low, Russia has no choice but to launch whatever's left, even if it's falling apart.

Still, they keep firing. That's what matters. Fewer missiles, rising costs, hitting civilian buildings instead of military targets. But Russia's message remains clear. We can still make you feel the pain.

That message is losing its punch. Ukraine's air defenses, boosted by Western systems like the Patriot and NASAMS, are taking out more and more missiles. What used to be a wave of destruction now often ends with reports like ྖ percent intercepted.' The threat is still there, but it's not as overwhelming as it once was.

Then there's the long-term issue. If Russia keeps using up its missile stockpile faster than it can replace them, it could be out of ammo by 2025. Satellite images already show changes in factory output. Some of Russia's recent missile strikes appear to be with newly made missiles, still fresh off the production line. They're clearly firing as fast as they can make them and that's not something they can keep up for long.

Foreign help has played a role. North Korea has sent artillery shells, possibly even some ballistic missiles. Iran has supplied drones. But the Kh-101 cruise missiles are different. They're built in Russia, with Russian parts and technology. They can't be swapped out for cheap substitutes. Even if China is secretly helping, it won't solve the bigger problems in Russia's production lines.

Russia still has some missiles, but the clock is ticking fast.

Because no empire crumbles all at once.

It kicks off with a sound you can feel.

And ends in silence.

🖤 I see you made it to the end, thanks for reading! The journey is just starting.

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