Every playoff scenario, draft stakes, and ranking the significance of every Week 17 game from least to most important…

AND THEN THERE WAS ONE. Just like that, we're down to only one week of NFL regular season games remaining, then 11 playoff games and a long winter's nap before football returns in September. How did we get here so fast?? Fear not, though, because it's a loaded Week 17 slate with important implications in almost every game. In sum: CHAOS.

The NFL moves its whole schedule around for Week 17, putting the biggest game of the day in the Sunday night slot and lining up all the others so no team is getting extra information. And 93.75% of the way through the season, we still have only two teams totally locked into their seeds: Baltimore as the AFC 1-seed and Buffalo as the 5-seed. Everything else is still up for grabs.

Add it all up and 12 of the 16 games can still impact the playoff picture, while every game still impacts positioning in the draft. So which games matter most, and which have little bearing? And what's every team need to secure its best possible outcome? Motivation means everything in Week 17.

We'll run it all down, ranking the games from least to most significant with a little preview of what's at stake in Week 17 for every NFL team…

TIER VII — ALMOST TOTALLY MEANINGLESS

16. Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals can't get a top-5 pick at this point but have to be pleased with their season. Kyler Murray will almost certainly sit out the final game with a hamstring injury. For the Rams, a win avoids a Jeff Fisher throwback 8–8 season and an ugly, disappointing taste into the offseason.

15. New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are locked into the 5 seed and should basically treat this like a bye week before a road playoff game, likely in Houston. They should rest all key players and take the week off, and they're a stone cold lock for the annual Saturday afternoon playoff opener snooze fest.

For the Jets, there's a pretty wide array of draft pick finishes. Pending a million results and tiebreakers, they could draft anywhere from #6 to #18, so a win could cost them.

14. Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs, and at 6–9, they'll have to wait until 2020 Week 1 for their next chance to get back over .500 for the first time since December 14, 2014. But they might be playing for Freddie Kitchens's job. Finishing 6–10 is bad enough, but losing to the 1–14 Bengals in the finale might well be the nail in his coffin.

The Bengals are locked into the #1 pick no matter what. Bring on Joe Burrow.

TIER VI — MEANINGLESS… UNLESS YOU LIKE FUN

13. Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For a game with "nothing" on the line, there are some weird stakes here that could actually leave fans of both teams rooting hard for a loss.

The Falcons are 6–9 but have been a top 10–15 team the second half of the season, playing well. A win probably saves Dan Quinn's job somehow, which would have been unfathomable two months ago. Do Atlanta fans want that?

A Bucs win gets them to .500, which should have made this an incredibly successful season for Bruce Arians — and it has really, thanks to a top-10 defense. But a Bucs win is just another feather in the cap of Jameis Winston, and you have to think Tampa brings back an 8–8 Jameis for one more ride at the rodeo, and I promise you, no Bucs fan wants that.

Jameis Winston is 92 yards and two interceptions — or as he likes to call it, "the first quarter" — away from the NFL's first ever 5000–30–30 season. That's 5,000 passing yards, 30 TDs, and 30 interceptions. Incredible. Winston has 10 more interceptions than any competitor (?) and is a lock to lead the league in yardage, but he'd need five TDs to lead all three categories.

Winston can become the first QB in 31 years to throw 30 interceptions in a season (shouts Bucs legend Vinny Testaverde!). He's already 19th all time for yardage in a season; 222 yards means more yards than anyone in history not named Brees or Manning, and 327 jumps him all the way to 3rd all-time. Plus one more pick-6 sets the all time NFL record for a season, though he's already tied at the top with six this season.

So Winston is playing for his NFL future, a chance to lead all three major passing categories, and the cap to an absolutely legendary season. Fun! That special little section was for my buddy Tim Rucker. Happy birthday, Tim.

TIER V — ONLY MATTERS IF THE TITANS LOSE

12. Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Both these teams are eliminated already, but this could end up being a key game that determines multiple teams' playoff fates, neither of whom are the Colts or Jaguars, all thanks to the NFL's complicated tiebreaker rules. A Colts loss eliminates the Raiders from playoff contention. An Indy win helps the Steelers, and a win plus a Titans loss eliminates Tennessee. It's… weird.

For the teams themselves, there's little at stake. The Colts can get to 8–8 and exhale after losing their franchise quarterback and weathering a storm of injuries. This could be a final chance for Gardner Minshew to audition for a starting job, here or elsewhere. And it's possible Doug Marrone could be coaching for his Jaguars job, though it's hard to imagine this outcome having much bearing on that decision.

11. Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

We left the Raiders for dead after a four-game losing streak, but they won Sunday and suddenly have a real shot at the playoffs. In fact, if every team with a better record wins Sunday, the 8–8 Raiders make the playoffs. Oakland has to win. They also need the Steelers and Titans to lose, and they need Indy to win too. That creates a four-way 8–8 tie, and as long as at least one of the Patriots, Chiefs, Bears, or Lions win, the Raiders make the playoffs.

The crazy thing is the Raiders aren't even favored. The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites, which implies that oddsmakers think Denver is the better team outright (home field is worth three points). Denver is playing for a strong finish under Vic Fangio and a final look at rookie QB Drew Lock, who might have played himself into a starting role next fall.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

There's nothing at stake for the Ravens. They're 13–2 and locked into the 1-seed, and I wouldn't play Lamar Jackson a single snap. Get Robert Griffin III some playing time, rest up, enjoy the two weeks off, and get outta here with your "rust" and "momentum" arguments.

The Steelers' choke against the Jets means they no longer control their destiny, so they need a win and a Titans loss to make the playoffs. They should be extremely grateful the Ravens have nothing to play for here. Pittsburgh can technically make the playoffs with a loss, but they'd also need losses by the Titans, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Bears, and Jaguars. I smell a parlay!

TIER IV — DEPENDS ON TONIGHT'S OUTCOME

9. Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

The Rams loss Saturday night clinched the playoffs for the Vikings and locked them into the NFC 6-seed barring a big upset in one of a few games… and then the Cardinals beat the Seahawks and unlocked some possibilities.

If the Vikings beat the Packers tonight and the Bears next week, Minnesota will be at least the 5-seed. Typically that wouldn't be worth playing for, but the NFC 5-seed plays the Eagles or Cowboys instead of one of the other far worthier opponents. The 5-seed will be favored. It's a massive difference.

And that's not all. Minnesota can do better than the 5-seed. If they win out and the Packers lose in Detroit, the Vikings jump to the 3-seed, win the division, and host a playoff game. And if the Saints lose in Carolina too, Minnesota leaps all the way to the 2-seed, securing a bye.

Of course, the Vikings could also lose tonight without Dalvin Cook and render all of that moot. A loss in either game locks Minnesota into the 6-seed. And in some ways, a loss tonight is not the end of the world. It renders this game utterly meaningless for both teams next week, and Minnesota can effectively treat it like a bye week, resting Cook, Adam Thielen, and other key players before a road playoff game against a tough opponent. That's nice. But a chance to beat the Packers and move up in seeding for a better playoff matchup means tonight is still worth playing for.

UPDATE: With the Vikings MNF loss, drop this game to dead last in the ranks. Minnesota is locked into the 6-seed and should rest key players. Chicago has nothing to play for other than making Mitch Trubisky look good enough that he somehow gets a starting job again next fall.

TIER III — BIG FAVORITES PLAYING FOR A BYE WEEK

8. Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Remember when these teams both went 12–4 a year ago? That's a lifetime ago for the Chargers, who are somehow 5–10 with that loaded roster. Could this be a final Chargers game for Philip Rivers?

The Chiefs are playing for playoff positioning. A win plus a Patriots loss bumps them to the 2-seed. A loss plus a Texans win drops them to the 4-seed. That doesn't sound so bad, since it means playing Buffalo, but it probably also means a trip to Baltimore after that. Staying at the 3-seed almost certainly means an easier Wildcard Round opponent and a more preferable next opponent in the Pats.

7. Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

The Patriots are a win or a Chiefs loss away from securing the AFC 2-seed and yet another bye week, which puts them one home playoff win away from playing in EVERY SINGLE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME THIS DECADE. That's just insane.

Miami could win a fifth game in a season they tried to go 0–16, and you know Brian Flores and his guys will be trying. A Dolphins loss could technically still help them move up to #2 in the draft (with help) but Miami already won its rebuild. In football, "The Process" isn't about getting the #1 pick. It's about stockpiling draft assets, and the Dolphins already added eight extra picks next year, plus Houston's first- and second-round picks in 2021. They did just fine.

6. New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Carolina's games haven't mattered for a month now. Ron Rivera is already fired, and Cam Newton has one fedora out the door.

The Saints are guaranteed at least the 3-seed but hoping for more. A win here plus any loss by Green Bay (tonight or next week) or San Francisco moves New Orleans to the 2-seed and gives them a bye. A loss by both of those teams gives the Saints a path to the 1-seed. And while that sounds outlandish, remember that both the Packers and 49ers are the road teams in the season's final two marquee night games. A Green Bay loss tonight means New Orleans controls its destiny for a bye week.

5. Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The Lions have been on vacation for a month — or a season, or a few decades, depending on your perspective. A loss here guarantees them at least the #3 pick, maybe even #2 if Washington wins. They have no quarterback, no running back, and no incentive to win.

The Packers will have every motivation to win, regardless of tonight's outcome. If they lose tonight, a second loss plus a Vikings win next week drops Green Bay all the way to the 6-seed. A loss tonight plus a win next week means a division title and at least the 3-seed, possibly the 2-seed if the Saints lose.

If Green Bay wins tonight, there's even more upside. The Packers control their destiny for a bye week. If they win both, they're at least the 2-seed, but they lose any tiebreaker involving the 49ers. Win both plus a San Francisco loss and the NFC road to the Super Bowl runs through Lambeau.

TIER II — WELL, ONE OF THEM HAS TO MAKE IT

4. Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The Giants already screwed themselves out of Chase Young and the #2 pick with a meaningless overtime win over Washington yesterday. They can only hurt themselves more with a win.

The Eagles control their destiny after beating a lifeless Cowboys squad. Win and they're the 4-seed. They can also get in with a loss if Dallas loses. The Eagles aren't that much better than the Giants — they're only 5-point favorites here — so don't rule out something crazy.

3. Washington Haskins at Dallas Cowboys

Washington's clutch loss Sunday locks them into the #2 pick, as long as they finish the job and lose here. Rivalry game or not, this is a must-lose game. Joe Burrow and Chase Young are head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class. I'd argue Washington securing the #2 pick is more important than deciding which NFC East team gets to lose in round one.

The Cowboys have lose four of five, and Jason Garrett's fate is surely sealed now. They can still make the playoffs with a win and an Eagles loss, but it would probably take a couple playoff wins to save him now.

TIER I — BOTH TEAMS BADLY NEED TO WIN

2. Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Fine, the Texans don't badly need to win, but they'll prefer it. A Houston win gives them a shot at the 3-seed if the Chiefs lose, and that's worth playing for. That almost certainly means an easier opponent than the Bills, aka the Raiders or Steelers barring something crazy, and it also means avoiding the Ravens in round two. Houston also could choose to treat this like a bye week and rest their guys for an opening game against Buffalo, but Bill O'Brien says he has no intention of resting players.

The Titans have no such option. They will be playing to win, and a win gets them the AFC 6-seed. Tennessee has scored at least three touchdowns in every game under Ryan Tannehill, and they remain a very dangerous team that could make a run. They'd be a tough playoff opponent for anyone. The Titans aren't eliminated with a loss, but they'd need a Steelers loss and a Colts loss to back into the playoffs otherwise.

This game is the pivot for AFC Wildcard Weekend. The outcome will have bearing on the 3, 4, and 6-seed positioning.

1b. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (tonight)

Monday Night Football is a big one, as you've seen following along above. This is the second weightiest game left, ahead of all but one Week 17 matchup, and its outcome carries direct weight for both of these teams' games next week plus the Saints game and the 49ers-Seahawks game.

Oh hey, speaking of which…

1. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

This is the big one, and you'll want to be watching Sunday night.

For the 49ers, this game will be massive. They control their destiny, so a win guarantees this is the last time they'll play on the road all season, locking them into the 1-seed. A loss is devastating, costing San Francisco a bye and dropping them all the way to the 5-seed. That means three road trips instead of two home games to get to the Super Bowl. And if Minnesota wins out, a 49ers loss drops them all the way to the 6-seed. Yes, seriously.

That means San Francisco has a very real chance of entering the final game of the season knowing they will leave the game as either the 1-seed or the 6-seed, and nowhere in between. Holy crap.

Seattle entered Sunday as the NFC 1-seed, but their shocking home loss to the Cardinals leaves them in a precarious position. On the one hand, a win here still clinches the division, but it only guarantees the 3-seed now. They'd need a Packers loss (in either game) to get back to the 2-seed and a bye, and a Saints loss as well gets them all the way back to the 1-seed.

If Seattle loses this game, this will be their last time at home for the season. A loss drops them to the 5-seed, and it drops them all the way to the 6-seed if the Vikings win out and the Packers beat the Lions. That really matters in the NFC, where the 5-seed means playing a mediocre NFC East team.

Both teams will keep a close eye on tonight's game. If the Packers win out, that eliminates the extremes for Seattle, locking them into the 3- or 5-seed depending on this game. A Vikings win is worse for San Francisco, mostly, but really it's just a giant mess. A Minnesota win tonight leaves a very real scenario for five NFC playoff teams to finish at 12–4. That's the scenario where the Seahawks get the 1-seed, and that one drops the 49ers all the way to the 6-seed.

UPDATE: Green Bay's win means the 49ers are now locked into either the 1- or 5-seed. Seattle is limited to the 3- or 5-seed unless the Packers are shocked in Detroit.

Bring on the chaos. ■

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