How predictions are made?
In experimental research, a prediction is usually an if/then record. Scientists forecast the outcome of a future event based upon a pattern of evidence, experience or knowledge.
When it comes to technological forecasting, it is slightly different. It aims at predicting new technologies and techniques based on previous experiences, opportunities, current tech research and existing innovations.
Pew Research Center (2021) examined how experts think a new normal will look like in 2025 and found out that technology enhancements are one of the significant changes a notable portion of their respondents have forecasted. These respondents hope the pandemic would largely produce technology enhancements that will "allow people to live smarter, safer and more productive lives, enabled in many cases by 'smart systems' in such key areas as health care, education and community living.'
According to this study, Pew Research Center (2021) has identified that the expert respondents have forecasted certain innovations, among which are the Internet of Medical Things, the Internet-of-Flying-Things and 3D social media systems.
The Internet-of-Medical-Things
The Internet of Medical Things or IoMT is an interconnected infrastructure of medical devices, health software, sensor-based wearables and other health-related digital services. The crucial difference between IoMT from IoT is that these devices are connected not only with each other via the Internet but also with the patient's health data. Deloitte predicts that by 2022 the IoMT market value will be estimated at more than $150 billion.
Example:
An outstanding example of IoMT is a study conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada. The goal of the research was to find out if a smart shirt powered by AI can track a patient's health data and provide an accurate prognosis about his health. Researchers monitored the heart rate and breathing of healthy men in their twenties and compared their laboratory data with the data collected by a smart shirt. The results were positive. This means that this team of researchers has proven that AI-powered smart shirt can give accurate predictions on a patient's health and quickly identify the failing health moment.
The Internet-of-Flying-Things
The Internet-of-Flying-Things (IoFT) covers smart tech appliances like smart drones powered by 'object and face recognition, audio analytics, motion detection and sense-and-avoid systems that communicate with each other in the air and back down to a command centre on the ground' (Pew Research Center, 2021).
According to the study, an IoFT will be used for security, exploration and delivery. In the medical field, experts from the Pew Research study predict these smart drones to transport small-size medical deliveries between hospitals, drugstores and patients' homes.
Another application example of the IoFT was made by Sofiane Zaidi, Mohammed Atiquzzaman, Carlos T.Calafate (Science Direct, 2021). The example refers to using a system like the IoFT for fire detection, where the sensor system will collect the data like temperature, pressure and humidity and deliver this information to the fire station with IoT devices (Science Direct, 2021).
3-D social media systems
Social media is great, right? Especially in situations like lockdown. It allows us to network, to connect with our loved ones, our friends and stay together. Virtually, but together. Now imagine you speak to your friends via hologram avatars! Exciting, right?
3D social media systems is one of the forecasted technologies, according to experts from the Pew Research study, I've mentioned above. The tech experts believe that this technology will upgrade the whole social media experience and bring it to a whole new level!
But how can a technological forecast be made to contain probability dimensions in the same way other forecasts do? Most people think of a "technology" as a quite specific physical entity. They do not conceive of this entity as having the variable characteristics which would permit range forecasts or probability statements. To their minds, a precisely defined technology either will exist in a given situation, or it will not. And the forecaster must predict this exact event or else he is wrong. This misconception — which would place an impossible demand on any forecaster — causes much of the confusion in discussions about technological forecasting.
Harvard Business Review: 'Technological Forecasting' by James Brian Quinn (1967)
Though, written 54 years ago this article explains technological forecasting and expectations in a way that, I think, brilliantly matches modern times.
Despite the previously mentioned notions, misconceptions and expectations, tech forecasting is not only a driver of curiosity but also a piece of important information for public and private organizations and economic institutions. It is vital for tech experts to stay on top of the tech news, attend tech events, like the upcoming HPE Discover and hear about the recent developments in the industry, as it provides an immense help towards evaluating the modern trends and directions the World is moving towards.