Poll shows Trump walloping Biden by 23 points on physical and mental health…
People sometimes say that age is just a number. But that's not necessarily true for everyone or every job. It all depends on the specific person and job at hand.
President Joe Biden is a case in point. He is mired in a political firestorm over the issue of old age, in which Donald Trump is stomping on him in terms of public opinion by more than 20 points!
Biden's age is obviously a major political problem for Democrats, some independents and anti-Trumpers alike. It should no longer be ignored but addressed head on ASAP, like yesterday.
That's because if the election were held today then Biden would lose by five points, according to the latest NBC News poll — which gets much worse.
All is not fine politically for Biden — and by extension about half the country who supports him — even though the octogenarian commander in chief sternly insisted Thursday that "my memory is fine" during remarks from the White House.
Biden was commenting from the West Wing on the special counsel's report investigating his classified documents issue, another political loser on which Trump will trounce (and fundraise).
- Not to be too direct here, but I would have advised Biden to pound the lectern in a Clint Eastwood "make my day" kind of moment. That might help shift public opinion to counter the prevailing opposite view.
The New York Times wrote the following two hours after this post went live on Medium at 2:00 a.m. (EST/USA):
- "The special counsel's report and the president's evening performance placed Mr. Biden's advanced age, the singularly uncomfortable subject looming over his re-election bid, back at the center of America's political conversation."
- "The special counsel's report was surprisingly blunt. It described Mr. Biden's memory as appearing to have 'significant limitations,' characterized an interview he recorded in 2017 as 'painfully slow' and said Mr. Biden did not remember some key dates of his vice presidency.
The proverbial "shit has hit the fan" for Biden, the White House and his reelection team, to use some American slang about his precarious political position.
Not Too Late (technically)
As I noted in Part 1 of this series (here and below), it's not too late for Biden to suspend his sagging reelection campaign in favor of a more politically formidable younger candidate for the Democrats.
Didn't the Dems learn their lesson in 2016 that they better take Trump seriously?
For the non-political junkies, let's recall that presumptive party nominees are just that, presumptive until officially nominated by the respective party at their national conventions this summer (as noted in Part 1).
Moreover, it's not unprecedented in party history for "floor fights" to break out during the convention due to internal dissension. There was the Democratic National Convention in Chicago 1968, for example (see above).
Additionally, the late "Lion of the Senate" Ted Kenndy launched a primary challenge against President Carter on the convention floor during the 1980 election.
So, who would replace Biden you ask?
Many loyalists will say Vice President Harris. However, while I love Kamala, I view this differently due to Trump. The answer will come in Part 3, the series finale. Trust me you will be surprised by my recommendation about a "golden boy" Democratic governor — and it's not who you think, I promise.
For now, though, I want to address four questions here (please share your comments below):
- Do YOU think President Biden is too old for a second term?
- And, if yes, should Biden gracefully exit the race now in lieu of a more formidable candidate to win in November?
- Does old age (elderly, over 70) pose a significant barrier to effectively steering the ship of state, particularly during times of national crisis?
- How old is too old to be President of the United States, and what should be done about it?
Age has proven to be a persistent problem for Biden which is badly hurting his re-electability, according to various national opinion polls reflecting the mood of the country.
Politically Devastating
As noted above, the national news media wasted no time in putting the age issue front and center by painting a politically devastating picture of Biden.
The Washinton Post, for example, wrote the following four hours after this post went live on Medium (article below):
- "The United States is entering unmapped territory: an octogenarian in the Oval Office.
- "As he nears his ninth decade, he faces the uncomfortable reality that a growing number of younger Democrats and independents are calling for generational change."
- "For many Americans, the signs of Biden's aging are evident. The president speaks with a fainter, more gravelly voice than he did earlier in his career, and his hair has gone white and sparse."
"The prospect of a reelection bid continues to be a source of angst for some Democratic lawmakers." — The Washington Post
Physical Fitness and Mental Health
Even though Trump is only a few years younger than Biden, voters see a big distinction in their fitness and ability to carry out the demanding duties of President of the United States (POTUS).
The latest national poll from NBC News found that when respondents were asked who has "the necessary physical and mental health to be president" the results were not even close.
The polling data speaks volumes: Trump beats Biden by an astounding 23-point margin!
Saying that the age issue does not bode well for Biden and the Democratic Party would be a vast understatement. Nor does it bode well for independent voters who are die-hard anti-Trumpers and/or anti-MAGA.
Middle-of-the-road moderate independents (like me) are collectively more likely to determine the outcome of the presidential race, particularly in swing states.
The voice of independent voters in battleground states should not be taken for granted.
As NBC News reports about the perceived mental and physical health of Trump versus Biden:
- "When this question was last asked in October 2020 — a month before Biden's victory over Trump — the then-president held only a 7-point advantage over Biden, 48% to 41%."
The poll contains more bad news for Biden, which may or may not be age-related:
- "The NBC News poll also finds Biden's overall approval rating dropping to the lowest point of his presidency, with 37% of registered voters approving and 60% disapproving — down from November's score of 40% approving, 57% disapproving."
- "Biden's current approval rating is the lowest for any president in the NBC News poll since George W. Bush's second term."
Trump currently holds an edge of 23 points over Biden when it comes to physical and mental fitness, an alarming and seemingly insurmountable disparity.
The Age Factor
Rightly or wrongly, the age factor is hindering Biden's re-electability, whether real or perceived. Voters appear to have made up their minds already — and it's been a big downward trend from 2020, polling shows.
There is currently no mandatory retirement age for the American presidency, unlike that of airline pilots (65) and workers in some other professions.
The reason why Biden should theoretically be politically disqualified is because anyone of any age can be president as long as they are 35-years-old — per constitutional standards — as Americans learn in grade school.
This means that a current octogenarian like Biden (a person who is 80–89 years old) is eligible to occupy the Oval Office for a second term.
In fact, a president of any age can occupy the Oval Office whether they were 90 or even 100 — at least technically and theoretically — according to constitutional requirements.
This makes no sense, as Biden's precarious predicament is clearly demonstrating.
Of course, the same rules apply to Trump if he were to win a second term. Yet Trump is kicking ass over Biden on the age factor, to his delight.
Trump would be 79 on Inauguration Day in January 2025 and turn 80 in June of that same year. Well, you might say, that's a small age difference for such a large polling difference.
So, what gives?
Something is seriously amiss, and for once it's not a Trump political or legal crisis/scandal— the two are usually one and the same.
In fact, it eerily reminds me of the mood of inevitability surrounding Hillary Clinton in 2016. The Democrats were ready to hand her the keys to the White House before the election was even over because it was a forgone conclusion, right? Well…no, not exactly.
It's one of the biggest winning issues Trump has going for him to boost his poll numbers: voters appear to see the age issue between the former president and the current president very differently.
This matters immensely because perception is reality in politics.
The oldest POTUS in modern times to win a second term was Ronald Reagan, who won a landslide victory against Democratic challenger Walter Mondale in 1984.
Reagan and Iran-Contra
For comparative historical purposes, President Reagan took the oath of office for a second term at age 74. However, Biden would be 82 on Inaugration Day, a considerable difference.
And, for purposes of historical analysis, at least some political observers and historians thought Reagan proved "not up to the job" the second time around — others disagreed.
The infamous Iran-Contra arms-for-hostages crisis is probably the best example of Reagan's second term being derailed.
This foreign policy debacle jeopardized Reagan's policy agenda at home and abroad. Fallout from the Iran-Contra scandal resulted in daily ongoing negative news coverage, which was buttressed by live hearings in front of a special commission investigating the matter.
Reagan Administration officials provided sworn testimony and faced the consequences.
Nevertheless — even though there was a "fall guy" per combat decorated Marine Lt. Col. Oliver North — the news media lambasted Reagan as being forgetful and losing some of his cognitive ability in old age.
That was the stereotype, at least. Others will swear it's not true. Today, Reagan's age issues of the mid-to-latter 1980s would be a viral meme.
This was due to Reagan's self-proclaimed lack of any knowledge about authorizing the Iran-Contra mess. Remember, he was a Hollywood actor before he became California's governor.
Corrupt CEOs and C-suite execs call this playing dumb. Sometimes it works, sometimes not. It's arguably easier to pull off in the political theater rather than in a court room.
Thus, Reagan became the butt of jokes during opening monologues of late-night TV shows and the stereotype was set in stone. Check out Reagan and ABC News pitbull, Sam Donaldson, going mano a mano with Reagan in the White House Press Briefing Room (and don't forget about UPI's Helen Thomas, who helped break "glass ceilings" in journalism).
The comical age-based stereotype became a pop culture media fixture during the second term of Reagan's presidency — and the media were small back then based on today's standards.
Reagan left office as the oldest American president in history at age 77, yet his public approval remained favorable. He was a politician's politician, as they say, similar to President Bill Clinton (for whom I once worked).
National polls clearly show the public perceives Donald Trump as relatively younger, stronger and more fit for office than Biden — whether true or false in actuality.
Final Thoughts
Regardless of whether you agree that octogenarians should be disqualified from the presidency, the final say is up to voters.
Only Congress can provide a legislative fix per a mandatory retirement age for POTUS, and that doesn't appear likely any time soon. Some members of Congress are octogenarians themselves.
Nevertheless, a mandatory age limit of 70 upon taking the oath of office for POTUS would be a welcome development for the country. That would mean that no president could turn older than 78 upon completion of a second term.
Recall that the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots is 65. Therefore, 70 appears to be a reasonable compromise for a president's age limit at the outset of the first term, as POTUS must serve as the pilot for a nation of over 330 million passengers.
Yet even if a presidential candidate over 80 is physically and mentally fit for the job, the perception of voters might be otherwise.
This is the unfortunate case with President Biden. Add on to that the negative factor of so-called "Biden Fatigue" — which I will address in Part 3 of this series (coming soon).
In politics, as in other aspects of life, perception is reality.
The Democratic Party must wake up to Biden's unsettling age perception, face this inconvenient reality — whether fair or not — and act accordingly before it's too late.
That is, if it's not too late already.
What do YOU think?
NOTE: You can check out Part 3 here.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: I previously served in the White House as a political appointee. I also worked on a winning presidential campaign and at the Presidential Transition Office, in addition to the U.S. Congress and federal government agencies. You can learn more about me here.