As an analyst, it is just mesmerizing to see many airhead geopolitical analysts, the perpetual commentators on X, and the China-Hawk crowd laugh and brag about how this war is going to hurt China. I am here to break the bad news to them, this War is not going to hurt China.
First off, let's start by saying that China's dependence on fossil fuels have plateaued and will continue to decline. As seen below, low-carbon sources and in particular wind and solar energy generation has gone up significantly.
Furthermore, majority of China's electricity sources have come from solar, wind, and nuclear.
China is now the global leader in clean energy innovation and research. By doing so, China is close to achieving full energy independence.
But China is still dependent on oil. This is where the keyboard warriors come and say that China's largest crude oil suppliers are Iran and Venezuela. But this cannot be further from the truth.
As you can see above, China's top 5 crude suppliers are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, South and Central America (most of this being Brazil), and West Africa. Three of these countries are BRICS members and West Africa is on the Sinosphere. No doubt the Saudis are excited to ever increase their share of oil sold to China. Plus, the Strait of Hormuz is only allowing Iranian and Chinese vessels to cross. Thus, the only market available for the gulf (for now at least) is Chinese. 80% of natural gas and oil cross through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, China holds the cards. Plus the gulf has to compete with China. The Chinese therefore can demand the gulf to accept only Yuan for their oil sales. In terms of Venezuela, these oil revenues will be stored in a Trump bank account in Qatar, thus they will sell Venezuelan oil to the best customer, which includes China.
Finally, this war is only going to increase the distrust between the Gulf and Washington. Already, relations between Riyadh and Washington have been fraying. Now, the Saudis are slamming Washington for abonding them to protect only Israel. As I am writing this note, Iran has bombed a Saudi Aramco refinery.
Another point made by many commentators either this gives China pause on attacking Taiwan or make an attack on Taiwan imminent. As I have said before, a war between China and Taiwan won't happen. Seeing how Iran is attacking Washington's Gulf allies and countries where there are US bases, many US allies in the pacific no doubt are having second thoughts. Also, the Pentagon is running out of missiles and to manufacture these weapons, it has to turn to China for rare earth and raw materials. Beijing already has a export ban and embargo on these rare earth materials. Finally, it is clear from Washington's national security memos that countering China is not the top priority of the Pentagon. Many see this as Washington stuck in a trap and it cannot get out.
Overall, this conflict not going to hurt China at all. If Washington thought this war will hurt Beijing, sadly, they are mistaken.
PS:- China also has the largest strategic oil reserves in the world. The Chinese have been storing commodities, including oil, and were preparing for chaos like what we see in West Asia. One should be more worried about South Korea and Japan, who depend on fossil fuel imports coming through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan is suffering from inflation, rising JGP yields and a weakening currency. This only adds fuel to Japan's fire.
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