Down goes Alabama, and now we'll spend the next week wondering if 11–1 Bama deserves a spot in the College Football Playoff despite a loss in their biggest game of the season. Alabama will be watching their televisions this weekend while all of the other playoff contenders play in a conference championship game.

So what do the rankings look like heading into conference championship weekend? It's pretty clear Oklahoma and Clemson control their playoff destinies, but what about the three SEC teams and everyone else? Does Central Florida have a real chance? Is the PAC 12 still alive? Let's take a look…

Four Dominant Teams

1. Oklahoma (previous rank: 2) 2. Clemson (3) 3. Auburn (6) 4. Georgia (4)

These look like the best four teams in football, and they certainly have the best resumes. This would make for an awesome four-team playoff, however you want to seed them. Unfortunately those nasty conference championship games exist so at least one and up to three of these teams will be out.

Oklahoma gets the nod at the top because no team in the country can match their trio of impressive victories against Ohio State, TCU, and Oklahoma State, two of them on the road. Clemson is up next. They beat Auburn early in the season and never had a chance to add another huge marquee win but finished with eight impressive victories over bowl teams, most of them in dominant fashion. Oklahoma's best wins are better, and their loss is less bad.

Auburn and Georgia are great too — probably. There's a real problem with the SEC teams, because it turns out the conference doesn't look so great after the big three. Mississippi State and LSU are probably both top 25 teams, but only barely. The Bulldogs' best win is LSU, and LSU beat Auburn but also lost at home to Troy. The cupboard is pretty bare after that. South Carolina, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Missouri are all going bowling with seven wins, but they have a combined four wins against bowl teams that are not each other.

So back at the top of the SEC we have these three dominant-looking teams who all look dominant because they've dominated all of these other apparently mediocre SEC teams. Alabama and Georgia's early wins against Florida State and Notre Dame don't look as impressive now as they did two months ago. Auburn has the best loss in college football, by a touchdown at Clemson.

Oklahoma has seven wins against bowl teams. Clemson has seven. Auburn and Georgia have nine combined. And that's why we are showing some caution with the SEC teams and ranking them third and fourth here. Auburn and Georgia are very close. Auburn has one more loss but one more marquee win, and it just happens to be a blowout win against the team we're comparing them to.

Whichever SEC team wins this Saturday will have a pretty good claim to the #1 seed though. If it's Georgia, they're a one-loss team who dominated all but one game this season and then redeemed that loss with a victory over the same team. If it's Auburn, they have the best trio of wins in the country and only have a second loss (compared to OU and Clemson) because they had the toughest non-conference game in the country.

Either way, these are clearly the four best resumes in the country as we head to conference championship week. It's not Alabama, and it's not Wisconsin. We'll get back to them, but they're not next either.

The Overlooked Two

5. TCU (8) 6. Central Florida (9)

It's a real shame TCU and Central Florida are named TCU and Central Florida. If they were named something like Texas and Boise State, they'd both be right smack in the middle of the playoff race where they should be.

TCU is the second best team from what is probably the best conference all around, highlighted by that early Oklahoma win at Ohio State. Texas Christian has six wins against bowl teams including a tough road victory at Oklahoma State, and they can redeem one of their two losses by beating Oklahoma this week. If they do that, they should definitely represent the Big 12 in the playoff, no question about it. Their other loss is the least bad loss of any of the other teams they'd be contending against for a spot, and they'd be fresh off a victory over the hottest and best team in football.

Central Florida likely has no shot at the playoff, and it's a real shame. This is a team that got smacked by the hurricane that ravaged Florida early this season and still managed to fly through the season undefeated after going 0–12 just two seasons ago. They have six wins against bowl teams, three of them on the road, and they've been dominant in most of them including a blowout win against their toughest opponent, Memphis. They also won at Maryland early in the season before the Terps all got hurt and fell apart. UCF is really good, and they have the best resume left — for now — of the two unbeaten teams. They have a genuinely strong case for the playoff. They'll probably get a Sugar or Orange Bowl berth instead, but UCF deserves to have its shot.

If this team with this resume in this year cannot even get a playoff consideration against a handful of two-loss teams, we need to stop pretending a non-Power-5 team will ever get there.

Unbeaten… Against Who?

7. Wisconsin (10)

Well, here we are. Wisconsin is 12–0, but only five of the wins are against bowl teams. The best wins were against Iowa and Northwestern. Both fine teams, but both at home, both games a top ten team is a heavy favorite to win. They're borderline top 25 teams. Iowa has a couple big wins but five losses. Northwestern is 9–3 by virtue of an even softer schedule than Wisconsin. The Badgers' only non-conference bowl opponent was Florida Atlantic. They haven't played a bowl team on the road all season. They didn't have to play Ohio State or Penn State or Michigan State. The schedule is just… nothing. They get credit for winning the games in front of them, but only so much.

Of course, Wisconsin does play Ohio State this week and there's literally zero chance of the committee leaving a 13–0 Big Ten champ out of the playoff anyway, so it's a moot point. Ohio State has struggled or lost in all its biggest games this year, but no one will care about that if they lose again to undefeated Wisconsin.

Assuming all the favorites win this weekend, my rankings would pit undefeated Wisconsin against undefeated Central Florida for the fourth and final playoff spot. I think that's a debate worth having, and I've had UCF ahead of Wisconsin in every ranking this season. Does a win against a possibly J.T.-Barrett-less Ohio State change that? We'll see.

Alabama Does Not Deserve a Playoff Spot

8. Alabama (1)

Wait, how can Alabama fall from #1 to #8 with just one road loss against a rival that's proven to be one of the five best teams in the country? Because every week we re-examine the entire resume and start from scratch. And Alabama's resume just doesn't stand up. They lost in their biggest game of the season, and pretty soundly. Their next best win was at Mississippi State, a win 5–6 Ole Miss just replicated. They have six wins against bowl teams — but one of them Colorado State didn't themselves beat a bowl team all year, and the other Florida State had to cheat and add a game to their schedule late in the season just to keep their bowl flimsy bowl streak alive.

Alabama was ranked so highly on the presumption of past Bama and SEC dominance. But past Alabama didn't lose their biggest game of the year, and past SEC had more than three definite top 25 teams. This Alabama resume definitely doesn't measure up against TCU, UCF, or Wisconsin, all of whom can still add another top victory next weekend. It might measure up for against Ohio State and Miami for now, but it won't if either of those teams win their big weekend game. It's a better resume than USC, but it's close if USC beats Stanford again.

Alabama probably has a better resume than Notre Dame, but are we sure this year's Tide would have won more than nine games against that tough Irish schedule featuring ten legit bowl teams and the best teams from three of the five major conferences? Maybe. Maybe not. Perhaps we should let Notre Dame and Alabama play in the Sugar Bowl and find out. For years, Alabama has been good and benefited from playing in a very strong conference from which we could forgive a tough loss because there were so many other tough games. This year the luck evens out, and perhaps that's only fair. Alabama is out. They will not have a top four resume no matter what happens next weekend.

Two Contenders that Might Not Be Sure Things

9. Ohio State (NR) 10. Miami (5)

Both of these teams are assuming a win in the conference title game gets them into the playoff, but perhaps they should not be so confident.

Ohio State played six bowl opponents — but got crushed by two of them and struggled against two others. A win against Wisconsin would help, but it might also make many think the Badgers have been overrated and the product of a soft schedule all this while anyway. The Buckeyes are 1–1 on the road against bowl opponents. They'd be 1–1 against top 10 opponents… if Wisconsin stays in the top ten after a loss. The Buckeyes are good but the resume is borderline.

Miami's resume is softer than expected too, because that loss at Pittsburgh is really bad. Like, it's terrible, and easily the worst loss of any of the presumed contenders, a full-strength loss against a terrible non-bowl team. The Hurricanes do have six wins against bowl teams but a lot of mediocre ones. They didn't play a road game all season against a team that finished above .500. Their one marquee win against Notre Dame is not as shiny as it was a week ago. But they can add a huge win against Clemson and finish as a 12–1 ACC champ. In all likelihood that conference title and that "1" at the end of their record would be enough to get them into the playoff. But it'd be close.

That's It for Playoff Contenders

11. Notre Dame (7) 12. USC (12)

Notre Dame is obviously done after a third loss, but this is still a really good team that went 9–3 against the toughest schedule in football. No other team has played ten opponents that will be bowling, and all but Temple are legitimately good teams. The Irish lost three times, but they also won handily against five good teams. It's perfectly reasonable to wonder if any of the teams in the top ten would've done any better than 9–3 against the Irish schedule.

They crushed USC head-to-head, which is why they get they remain ahead here. The Trojans will actually become the second team in the nation to play ten bowl teams when they hit the field Friday night, but their bowl opponents don't stack up as strongly. USC lost their two toughest road games. Their best win is against Stanford, but that's their only win against a team even close to the top 25. There are a lot of nice home wins here against solid above average teams, and they'll make for an entertaining Rose Bowl if they beat Stanford again, but that's it. There's no scenario where this team is a more deserving playoff team than the conference champ from any of the other four major conferences, and I'm not sure they pass Alabama or Central Florida either.

Up Next

Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Stanford, Virginia Tech

Not much to see here. Stanford will make a nice traditional Rose Bowl if they beat USC. They'll play Penn State there if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten championship game too.

The Final Big Playoff Picture

My rankings make things more interesting than they probably are in real life, but a few things are clear. An SEC champ will be in the playoff. Oklahoma and Clemson will be too if they win. My fourth spot would be a toss-up between Central Florida and Wisconsin, assuming both win.

But the reality is that undefeated Wisconsin would be a playoff shoe-in, and so would one-loss ACC champ Miami fresh off a Clemson win. That's six teams that control their destiny. All that leaves is Ohio State, TCU, Alabama, Central Florida, and USC, who all need to win and look pretty in the eyes of the committee.

Alabama has no game to win. They just won't have a better resume than the four teams that win the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC championship games. They're done. They'll be a lovely Sugar Bowl pick.

I'd love to believe Central Florida has a real chance, but they don't. Neither does USC when you really look at the resumes. They just don't stack up against the four other conference winners.

And that means that this is all really quite simple. We have eight teams left that can make the playoff, and all of them play each other next weekend.

Hey look, we got an eight team playoff after all. Clear your weekend.

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